PR-Data Research

Science Alert中发表了一项新研究，该研究指出，在半个世纪之内，脸书（Facebook）可能会被死人占领——届时，在这个世界上最大的社交网络的用户群体中，已去世的用户会比活着的活跃用户还多。

这一颇具争议性的预测来自牛津大学（University of Oxford）的两名研究者，他们处理了大量脸书用户的数据，为讨论社会应该如何处理数字遗产。

来自牛津互联网研究所（Oxford Internet Institute，OII）的研究者卡尔·奥曼（Carl Öhman）和大卫·沃森（David Watson）说：“历史上从未有过如此庞大的人类行为和文化档案被汇集在同一地方。在某种意义上，控制这些档案就是控制了我们的历史。"

A new study published in Science Alert suggests that within half a century, Facebook could be overrun by the dead -- at which point there will be more dead users of the world's largest social network than alive and active ones.

This controversial prediction comes from two researchers at the University of Oxford who processed data from a large number of Facebook users in order to discuss how society s Carl Öhman and David Watson, researchers from the Oxford Internet Institute (OII) said: "There has never been such a huge archive of human behavior and culture in history. Being brought together in the same place. In a sense, to control these archives is to control our history."hould handle digital heritage.

在最新的计算当中，研究者考察了两种情景：情景 A，假设从 2019 年起没有新用户加入脸书，测试会发生什么；情景 B，假设脸书继续以目前每年 13% 的全球增长率扩张，测试会发生什么。

在情景 A 中，到 2100 年将有 14 亿脸书用户死亡，期间死亡率稳步增长，并在 2077 年达到顶峰，届时仅在一年时间内就将有超过 2900 万用户死亡。

In the latest calculations, the researchers examined two scenarios: Scenario A, assuming that no new users join Facebook from 2019 onwards, to test what will happen; Scenario B, assuming that Facebook continues to grow at the current annual global growth rate of 13% expansion, what happens to the test.

In scenario A, 1.4 billion Facebook users will die by 2100. During this period, the mortality rate will increase steadily and reach a peak in 2077. By then, more than 29 million users will die in just one year.

Global Accumulation of Dead Profiles: Scenario A

Please note that under these conservative assumptions, the number of dead accounts on Facebook will exceed the number of people alive in about 50 years," the researchers wrote in their paper.

However, the team also admitted that scenario A is unlikely to happen because there is no evidence that Facebook may immediately stop adding new users to the site.

On the contrary, the continued growth forecast of Scenario B suggests that Facebook may also flourish until the distant future, until the number of dead accounts accumulates and catches up with the live users.

Global Accumulation of Dead Profiles: Scenario B

The researcher wrote: "The continuous growth rate of 13% per year has increased the expected number of dead users on Facebook by 3.5 times, to a total of 4.9 billion."

"Unlike scenario A, in this century, the number of dead users did not show any signs of surpassing that of live users. However, the proportion of dead users is still very high. In the first few decades of the 22nd century, the number of dead users It is likely to be the same as the number of people alive."